As the GOP Convention opens, and the coronation of Donald Trump is all but assured, I thought I would go over some reasons why sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Although as I probably cannot help myself and at some point will be talking about the Convention.
Think about two political parties. The Conservatives in the UK, and the Democrats in the US. Both have managed to give themselves a much harder time in upcoming elections or post Brexit fall out than they would otherwise have had, had they not shot themselves in the proverbial foot. Lets start in the UK, where it is no secret, the ruling Conservatives under David Cameron have managed to, as the Brits like to say, made a right cock up of things. The Brexit vote was intended by Cameron as way to shut up the Euroskeptic wing of the Conservatives once and for all. A sop in their direction. Needless to say, this tactic backfired in a spectacular fashion. Cameron is a lame duck PM, and the Conservatives were thrust into a leadership contest, although to their credit it was settled remarkably quickly.
But, then along came the opposition Labour party. So utterly inept that their leader Jeremy Corbyn,
couldn’t even muster up the energy to really push for the Remain campaign, that 80% of his own MP’s voted for him to leave. The Labour party members on the other hand, voted for him as leader, and are pushing for him to stay on. So the Conservatives, despite everything, will probably remain in power until 2020. And staying in power after all their royal screw up’s is quite an achievement. All due to (mainly) the fact that the Labour party quite simply cannot get their shit together.
Now, think about the Democrats in the US. You have Hilary Clinton whose unfavorable ratings are sky high. Who has low trust issues and is not really liked at all. Although as I said before. Margaret Thatcher had the same problems. But I digress. So this should be a good year for the GOP. But of course it isn’t, as along comes Donald Trump. Voted in, like Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour Party, by the masses.
You can hear the gnashing of teeth of the GOP elite all the way to Texas. The GOP will lose the election, Clinton will be president and the GOP will wander off into the wilderness for at least another four years. Again like the Labour Party.
None of this should have happened of course. The Labour party should have been prepared and in a strong position to take advantage of the Conservatives chaos. meanwhile the GOP should have been well positioned to take out the Democrats as the Dems decided to nominate an uninspiring candidate. To put it mildly. But of course neither the GOP nor Labour did anything remotely sensible.
As I said, for the Democrats and the Conservation party, sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
Next time I will examine why it is that the masses decided on Corbyn and Trump.